There is an error in the calculations in this post as “increase in outgoing radiation inferred from changes in the global mean surface temperature.” Has not been taken into account. The conclusion is not valid.
Here is a new post without that error – it turns out that:
IPCC got all bets covered!
The title sounds pretty impressive – doesn´t it?
Well – let us translate it into plain english and see what the title really says:
Model errors can be removed by adjusting the model so that the output match what is observed.
By inductive reasoning, and imagination, many possible explanations can be provided for a series of events. However, most of these explanations will be wrong.
Knowledge on the other hand is characterized by the ability to repeatedly predict a particular range of outcome for a particular set of conditions.
This post summarize the most important unscientific principles governing IPCC. The post contains links to other the other posts which provides my full argument behind each claim.
IPCC used circular reasoning to exclude natural variability. IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability!
Enjoy this 1 minute clip with Feynman!
What Richard Feynman summarize here is the hypotetico – deductive model. This method can be regarded as the modern scientific method.
By the United Nations climate theory, energy is supposed to:
– be trapped by CO2 in the atmosphere
but fails to warm it!
– pass the upper 300 meter of the oceans
without warming it!
– warm the deep oceans below 700 meters
where we lack historical data, and the measurement uncertainty is too high to conclude!
These theories appear to be able to explain practically everything that happened within the fields to which they referred.
The world was full of verifications of the theory. Whatever happened always confirmed it. Thus its truth appeared manifest; and unbelievers were clearly people who did not want to see the manifest truth; who refuse to see it…”
A culture is a way of perceiving, thinking and acting – which has been learned, developed or discovered by an organization – while learning to deal with its internal and external challenges – and which is being taught to it´s members as the right way of perceiving, thinking and acting
“… it is always possible to find some way of evading falsification, for example by introducing ad hoc an auxiliary hypothesis, or by changing ad hoc a definition. It is even possible without logical inconsistency to adopt the position of simply refusing to acknowledge any falsifying experience whatsoever. Admittedly, scientists do not usually proceed in this way, but logically such procedure is possible”
– Karl Popper
Anyone thinking that IPCC can be regarded as being unbiased should have a look at the Report of the second session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 28 June 1989.
Simply put, the result of an estimate should be reported by:
– giving a full description of how the measurand Y is defined
– stating the result of the measurement as Y = y ± U and give the units of y and U
– giving the approximate level of confidence associated with the interval y ± U and state how it was determined;
“The degree of certainty in key findings is based on the author teams’ evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of confidence. (from very low to very high)
Confidence in the validity of a finding is based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement.”
– IPCC WGI;AR5
Have you ever read the work by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and felt disturbed by terms like “Medium agreement” or “Robust evidence”? Such terms origin in a document called: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties “These guidance notes are intended to assist Lead Authors of…
It is quite amazing that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change experienced an urge for a guideline on the expression of uncertainty but failed to discover and acknowledge a broadly recognized and freely available international guideline on the subject.
In the post: “What does it take for an quantitative theoretical model to be reliable?” I put up a list over requirements a quantitative theoretical model will have to fulfill to be regarded as reliable. I base the list on what I regard to be principles in modern philosophy of science. Hopefully in accordance with the principles of…
The International Panel on Climate Change made some effort to define terminology. This is how the Panel defined terms to describe the degree of agreement: Box TS.1 | Treatment of Uncertainty “The following summary terms are used to describe.. the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high.” Everything should be just fine then – or…
The average value of an ensemble of climate models is often used as an argument in the debate. What does it mean? The following is a quote from the contribution from Working group I to the fifth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.: Box 12.1 | Methods to Quantify Model Agreement in Maps…
Does your favourite scientific method happen to be one of these? (Ref Wikipedia – for what it is worth) Inductivism is the traditional model of scientific method attributed to Francis Bacon, who in 1620 vowed to subvert allegedly traditional thinking. In Baconian model, one observes nature, proposes a modest law to generalize an observed pattern, confirms it by many observations, ventures…
You might regard this analysis as being too simple to add value – but then again: “Science may be described as the art of systematic oversimplification.” ― Karl Popper The skeptical weblogs contain clear signs that there is a lot of opposition to the works by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Could it be that one…
I think it would be useful to have an international standard to refer to when evaluating if an quantitative theoretical model is reliable. Unfortunately no such standard exists. If we regard the case where the theoretical model is about predicting the quantity of an output value for a number of inputs. There are some standards relating to measurement,…
I claim in this post: What does it take for an quantitative theoretical model to be reliable? that a quantitative theoretical model will have to fulfill a set of criteria to be reliable. Consequently an alternative theory will have to fulfill the same criteria. So – let´s say that the main theory is that increasing CO2 level in the…
It´s great fun to read about scientific history and the great philosophers of science like Karl Popper and David Hume. The current discussions about climate science makes me wonder – where are great philosophers of science when you need them? Will a great philosopher step forward and warn on unprecise statements like: “The science is…
An international standard would make it easier to discredit improper arguments within science. In lieu of such standard, other sources may be helpful . Below are some extracts from Responsible Science, Volume I: Ensuring the Integrity of the Research Process. This report by, the National Academy of Sciences, is freely available from National Academies Press. To scientists with…