How to estimate current global energy imbalance from NODC´s ocean temperature record 2005 – 2015

This is an easy, traceable, step by step calculation of the current global energy imbalance based on reported ocean warming.


The hypothesised cloud feedback – alone – is of comparable size to the current global warming!

Have you ever wondered how strong the hypothesized cloud feedback is, compared to the net surface warming?

Hang on – in about 2 minutes you will know.

As the cloud feedback is equal to the current global energy accumulations, it follows that the sum of all other terms in the radiation budget must be zero. Hence, IPPC seem to be wrong, either about their central estimate for cloud feedback or about the rest of their radiation budget.

IPCC got all bets covered!

IPCC covers a wide range of possible warming of the oceans from 0 – 2000 m, but don´t provide a best estimate.

IPCC can´t possibly miss!

This post contains relevant figures, references to the IPCC report, step by step calculations and link to a spread sheet with easy to follow calculations of:
– The deduced amount of warming
– The observed amount of warming

The fact is that I was wrong!

Update 2016-01-26
There is an error in the calculations in this post as “increase in outgoing radiation inferred from changes in the global mean surface temperature.” Has not been taken into account. The conclusion is not valid.

Here is a new post without that error – it turns out that:

IPCC got all bets covered!

IPCC don´t even know how to quantify uncertainty!

Simply put, the result of an estimate should be reported by:
– giving a full description of how the measurand Y is defined
– stating the result of the measurement as Y = y ± U and give the units of y and U
– giving the approximate level of confidence associated with the interval y ± U and state how it was determined;