This is an easy, traceable, step by step calculation of the current global energy imbalance based on reported ocean warming.
IPCC´s “Guidance note on expression of uncertainty” is affecting all the works by IPCC.
InterAcademy Council gave bad advices – and IPCC made bad choices.
To be able to judge if uncertainty has been properly expressed and reported it is important to be familiar with relevant standards for expression of uncertainty.
The title sounds peculiar, doesn´t it?
However, if the range is wide – it is safe to be certain that the outcome will be within that range!
Have you ever wondered how strong the hypothesized cloud feedback is, compared to the net surface warming?
Hang on – in about 2 minutes you will know.
As the cloud feedback is equal to the current global energy accumulations, it follows that the sum of all other terms in the radiation budget must be zero. Hence, IPPC seem to be wrong, either about their central estimate for cloud feedback or about the rest of their radiation budget.
IPCC covers a wide range of possible warming of the oceans from 0 – 2000 m, but don´t provide a best estimate.
IPCC can´t possibly miss!
This post contains relevant figures, references to the IPCC report, step by step calculations and link to a spread sheet with easy to follow calculations of:
– The deduced amount of warming
– The observed amount of warming
There is an error in the calculations in this post as “increase in outgoing radiation inferred from changes in the global mean surface temperature.” Has not been taken into account. The conclusion is not valid.
Here is a new post without that error – it turns out that:
IPCC got all bets covered!
The title sounds pretty impressive – doesn´t it?
Well – let us translate it into plain english and see what the title really says:
Model errors can be removed by adjusting the model so that the output match what is observed.
IPCC used circular reasoning to exclude natural variability. IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability!
By the United Nations climate theory, energy is supposed to:
– be trapped by CO2 in the atmosphere
but fails to warm it!
– pass the upper 300 meter of the oceans
without warming it!
– warm the deep oceans below 700 meters
where we lack historical data, and the measurement uncertainty is too high to conclude!
Simply put, the result of an estimate should be reported by:
– giving a full description of how the measurand Y is defined
– stating the result of the measurement as Y = y ± U and give the units of y and U
– giving the approximate level of confidence associated with the interval y ± U and state how it was determined;
It is quite amazing that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change experienced an urge for a guideline on the expression of uncertainty but failed to discover and acknowledge a broadly recognized and freely available international guideline on the subject.
In the post: “What does it take for an quantitative theoretical model to be reliable?” I put up a list over requirements a quantitative theoretical model will have to fulfill to be regarded as reliable. I base the list on what I regard to be principles in modern philosophy of science. Hopefully in accordance with the principles of…
The average value of an ensemble of climate models is often used as an argument in the debate. What does it mean? The following is a quote from the contribution from Working group I to the fifth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.: Box 12.1 | Methods to Quantify Model Agreement in Maps…