The relationship between risk and uncertainty at a stated confidence level

For a normal distribution, there is an exact mathematical relationship between uncertainty at a stated confidence level and risk that can simply be quantified as:

Risk = Uncertainty @ 95% confidence level * 0.2


An important premise for the Paris Agreement has been changed by an IPCC lead author for IPCC AR6 WGIII on Mitigation

A set of paths to the 1.5 DegC target of the Paris Agreement (2015) are presented in the article by Glen Peters.

However, there is a fundamental problem with the paths: They are not based on the premises that formed the basis for the Paris Agreement.

Publication bias within climate science!

What on earth is happening within science these days?

Here is an article on publication bias that was published in the journal Climatic Change having the title:
“No evidence of publication bias in climate change science”

However, the main body of the article identifies biasing practices.